September 29, 2011 -Posted by Greg Scoblete —
Hillel Fradkin and Lewis Libby have a long essay on America’s fading position in the new Middle East:
Taken together, these trends have called into question a number of strategic concepts on which American diplomacy in the Middle East has rested for decades:
• that a prosperous and democratic Turkey, anchored in the West, would, by example, draw other Muslim countries westward;
• that the failures of fascism, communism, and Shia theocracy, coupled with the enticements and pressures of a global economy, would in time lead the region, with Western help, to realign toward a liberal future in the broader community of nations;
• that the peace Israel reached with Egypt and Jordan would in time radiate outward into peace with other Arab states, and thus minimize the prospects of a major regional war;
• that the world community would prevent states in the region from getting nuclear weapons; and
• that regional divisions and American strength would prevent forces hostile to the US from dominating the region.
I think what’s evident from the above checklist of regional priorities is that they had failure baked in. The U.S. has had a mixed track record when it comes to preventing a major regional war – there was one almost every decade since 1970 – and two of them involved the United States. Nor is it clear why Washington expected that the Middle East would, with “Western help,” realign to a “liberal future” as it simultaneously stopped hostile states from dominating the region and prevented them from acquiring nuclear weapons. “Western help” was (and is) directed toward illiberal states in the region as a bulwark against “forces hostile to the United States.” The process of doing one thing undermines the other.
Put in more concrete terms: is there anyone who sincerely believes that you can support the Saudi monarchy to check Iran while simultaneously “helping” that same monarchy dissolve itself in the name of Western liberalism? It’s sounds like a self-evidently absurd position and yet, it’s being held up as something Obama has failed to do…