By Bronco – Syriacomment
The increased suspicions by the Western countries that neither the FSA nor the SNC are a reliable entity that could lead the country in the future after the fall of the regime, has changed the direction of the efforts.
There is a clear consensus appearing in the media that reflect the western and Arab government views, that nobody wants the removal of the whole regime anymore, they want the removal of the head as a scapegoat so a new phase of the relation between the opposition and the regime can start.
Nevertheless, unless the Syrian government is certain that the new phase will be a viable one for the Syrians and in particular for the Alawites and the other minorities, they would not sacrifice Bashar Al Assad.
So now we are facing two issues. One is the military, the other one is the the political.
The military is happening on the ground and will probably drag a few more weeks to become meaningful. If the rebels win and there is no political plans, the country will fall into a worst chaos. If they loose, then the regime will be able to hold for few more months until the next assault. In both cases there is a need for a political solution to stop the violence.
On the political side, intense efforts are made by the opposition and their sponsors to find a suitable opposition leadership to the ‘transitional entity’ that would be acceptable to the regime for future collaboration.
Manaf Tlass, the defected brigadier general, friend of Bashar Al Assad, seems to be the favorite, although the only one. Whether his defection was simply arranged by Bashar al Assad just for that purpose or whether the guy is genuine is irrelevant. He is a sunni representing the business Syrians as well as the army that are the two pillars of the Syrian state.
He is obviously the only such candidate and therefore the best to enter into a negotiation with the Syrian government.
No wonder Saudi Arabia, France and Turkey are pampering him.
The SNC who wants that role opposes Manaf and have no other candidate to propose. As an excuse they insist that they are busy preparing the tasks needed in the aftermath of the victory rather than looking for a leader. Leading a post revolution without a leadership figure is an illusion.
Therefore if the sponsors of the opposition do not agree on the only leader figure in town, Manaf Tlass, and are not able to force it on the SNC and the others than only the military failure or success will decide of the future of Syria that may be a continuous state of violence that would gradually affect all the neighbors.
It’s up to the Friends of Syria to find the solution. Will they?