Published: 02-12-2011 –Le Figaro–
By Georges Malbrunot
After eight months of a bloody crackdown that killed more than 3,500 people, the uprising against the regime of Bashar al-Assad is now at a crossroads. The revolt was less peaceful and more militarized. “At Homs, Idleb, in three or four cities around Damascus and in some localities near Daraa to the south, there are only armed clashes,” tells us Haytham Mana, the head of the National Coordination, one of Syrian opposition groups in exile. First consequences of this drift: the toll has dramatically risen in recent weeks. To the tortures certainly much more numerous committed by the henchmen of the regime we have now acts of revenge particularly bloody, as the recent attack on a bus driver (7 killed) near Homs. Sectarian clashes also are hardening in the mixed areas, where the seeds of a civil war are the most disturbing.
Second consequence: those responsible for the Coordination and their rivals of the Syrian National Council (SNC) are about to be overtaken by radicals on the ground but also in Turkey, where the Syrian army took refuge free (FSA) consisting of several thousand deserters, who now claims rocket attacks against buildings of the intelligence services of Bashar al-Assad. A delegation of the National Council, headed by its leader, Bouran Ghalioun, went to meet Monday with Colonel Riad al-Assad – no relation with the Syrian Rais, ed – who controls the ASL. But the meeting was rather cold. And it is not clear that the military had agreed to comply with the demands of policy.
Ghalioun, like the National Coordination, object to the ASL attacking the troops still loyal to Assad. For two reasons: it would precipitate a civil war that would benefit the regime, which would use it to crush the dissent. But more because the SNC and Coordination do not want to be overwhelmed by those who, behind the scenes, are pulling the strings behind the Colonel Assad.
The agenda of the Brotherhood may differ from that of the seculars
Who are they? “Some members of the Muslim Brotherhood out of Syria, including Turkey, and all those inside no longer believe in peaceful demonstrations and now want to do battle with weapons in hand,” said a member of SNC, who recognizes that they “are becoming more numerous.” The brothers are members of the National Council, but ultimately, their agenda could differ from that of “seculars”, who make up the main organization of the Syrian opposition.
A return to past events is necessary. From June, the first defections in the army led to the creation of the Movement of official free around the Colonel Hussein Harmoush. But from his camp in the Turkish province of Hatay, he refused to pass under the control of the Muslim Brotherhood who had approached him, says Haytham Mana. A few days later, Colonel Harmoush was mysteriously kidnapped by the Syrian intelligence services, thanks to an connection with of Alevis, a close branch to the ruling Alawites in Syria within the Turkish security apparatus. Several opposition leaders Syrian suspect in fact the Turks have simply delivered Harmoush the Syrians to make him pay for his refusal to cooperate with the Islamists. Recognizing their failure, they then turned to the Syrian Army Colonel Assad’s free, weaker, therefore less able to resist pressure.
Riad el-Assad, a blanket used by the Turks
For an official of the CNS, “Assad today is a cover used by the Turkish authorities” that he and his men confined in a base of the province of Hatay bordering Syria. Turkish intelligence service (Milli Istibarat Teşkilat) controls its movements while an officer of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds to interview requests that journalists wish to have with the head of the FSA.
According to French intelligence services, the FSA is strong of 8000 men, but generally not used in combat, often coming from the administration of the army. The majority of its members are actually soldiers that are not returned to their barracks at the end of a permission. Locally, they would rely on militias that have decided to join the protest.
Under these conditions, we understand why the ASL much needs assistance and supervision: its support would be provided by Turkey and other Western countries. Much like the Libyan rebels at the beginning of the revolt against Gaddafi. Except that with Damascus, the risks of retaliation are far more higher than the late Colonel Libyan buffoon.
By Georges Malbrunot