JC 1 september 2011 —
Recognizing the SNC is an act of war as this opposition is specifically asking the international community to condone the toppling of a government that of is part of the UN.
The TNC in Libya was recognized only by 30 countries only when NATO was appointed to ensure that the intended ‘regime change’ was implemented under a ambiguous agenda of a Human Rights issue by the UNSC resolution.
NATO is reluctant to act without a UNSC resolution and Russia and China are obstinate in rejecting any military action on Syria.
Therefore as long as the international community is not ready for a war, then the SNC will not be recognized, except by some die hard countries like France and some others.
Time is playing against the SNC: If the present Syrian government starts to seriously implement the reforms under Russia and Iran’s extreme pressure and succeeds, the only issue that the SNC could ask for is a human rights condemnation, nothing else.
The first major strategy of the hardline opposition as we are seeing today, after the failure of creating a massive popular uprising is to prevent any reform to be implemented. This is why they are resorting to targeted assassinations to stir the public opinion and exhaust the government to weaken it. Of course using intensively the media to accuse the government of these assassinations.
The second strategy is to create enough fear and confrontation in the villages and towns on the borders to create an influx of refugees in Turkey and Lebanon ( surprisingly there are no refugees reported in Jordan and Iraq). This will provoke a ‘humanitarian crisis’ like Libya and allow the UN to intervene.
The hardline opposition is aware that if the reforms succeed in diverting their calls for a regime change to a negotiation with the present government, they are finished and will need to leave the country in exile or just disappear. So, for them it is life or death issue.
Therefore I expect an increase of targeted killings and a tougher actions from the army as well as terrorists actions in villages on the border with a media campaign accusing the army of shooting at the villagers.
The limit date is the December election.